Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 62133.711761 65740.894952 69351.801716 73234.848245 77289.624888 81395.980555 85866.097807
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 56722.412457 62257.248644 67956.529717 74254.777690 81010.801722 88031.270435 95868.961032
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 52556.344776 59385.505615 66575.651879 74691.716813 83579.344069 92997.185068 103712.405070
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 49091.845432 56854.111642 65181.289266 74748.635513 85405.896191 96881.211699 110139.718835
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 46446.956263 54966.242665 64256.333713 75094.834353 87346.375982 100719.585615 116373.318136
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 44030.890164 53146.328713 63235.632459 75170.597108 88840.069570 103943.440446 121827.186400
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 42544.704826 52269.446442 63177.184022 76239.630661 91374.722947 108276.359266 128491.196231
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 40537.701657 50670.018001 62182.524301 76133.419988 92478.493103 110917.552864 133182.177568
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 39460.834147 50094.045289 62316.064051 77283.667084 94993.214590 115150.954408 139694.866407
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 38268.583086 49312.880907 62149.397586 78029.003755 96994.486410 118765.591626 145483.749616
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 36787.451779 48113.622271 61423.443131 78052.960403 98097.210986 121297.717948 149988.974521
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 35351.822587 46908.368373 60634.537577 77949.320555 99004.172917 123567.715203 154166.828241
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 34597.779981 46528.800452 60840.690827 79054.737401 101383.154473 127621.611119 160525.278386
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 33751.162451 45998.849959 60835.039513 79881.407793 103416.134868 131268.110391 166421.861182
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 32758.574586 45243.770822 60515.700134 80291.337328 104919.277592 134268.062213 171546.637838
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 31657.625221 44308.272263 59933.540845 80340.656693 105952.414429 136682.920282 175960.146100
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 30767.899905 43612.111179 59623.543428 80705.108354 107357.005945 139541.495954 180917.426470
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 29801.084136 42780.602301 59110.389001 80784.889525 108384.909678 141926.060866 185293.832965
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 29349.915666 42610.825124 59431.530437 81917.040757 110732.395118 145945.690636 191704.406247
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 28389.445306 41729.782780 58803.301835 81804.537651 111485.123115 147974.817867 195649.770282
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 28035.287626 41650.279960 59209.569265 83022.613171 113932.076863 152127.371406 202260.256674
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 27523.767847 41338.242443 59294.955494 83811.792200 115825.217431 155589.768215 208024.523221
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 26730.016787 40614.320518 58812.580441 83837.156447 116719.791933 157786.653000 212202.212245